London Playbook PM: Last fires of summer

Good afternoon. This is Andrew McDonald.
— The government’s been spinning away rising energy bills.
— But the combo of higher costs and the limiting of the winter fuel payment is worrying Labour MPs.
— Prisons are very close to being completely full with two weeks to go until the new early release scheme.
— Keir Starmer spoke to Xi Jinping for the first time in his premiership.
— Friday was a good day for Kemi Badenoch in the Tory leadership contest.
**A message from Google: Google’s Be Internet Legends programme helps children learn key online safety skills and offers fun interactive materials to help children be confident online explorers. This September 12th, you’re invited to join parents, teachers and students for our annual Back to School assembly, in partnership with Parent Zone. Learn more at go/beinternetlegends.**
BRITAIN STILL BROKEN: Energy bills are rising and the prisons are very close to being full — those are the headlines as Britain sails into August bank holiday weekend. Happy outlasting-Liz Truss-day, prime minister.
To recap: Ofgem announced this morning that the annual price cap on the average household’s electricity bills will rise to £1,717 from October, up from £1,568.
And in the hours since then … Energy Secretary Ed Miliband has been out and about blaming the price hikes on the “failed energy policy” he inherited from the Conservatives — and promising that his plans for GB Energy and more will help to achieve the energy independence Labour hopes will bring prices down by the next election, as they promised in the campaign.
Not sounding quite so optimistic: In a briefing for industry journalists, an Ofgem spokesperson told POLITICO’s Nicholas Earl that energy bills are unlikely to return to the levels seen before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and that the current situation will continue for “some time to come.” There’s lots more here if you subscribe to POLITICO’s ace energy pro service. Charities have also been lining up to warn about the impact of the rise on millions of people in fuel poverty — which the Big Issue reports is set to rise.
Winter of malcontents: Today’s planned hike in bills is difficult to pin on a new government which is yet to see the results of its medium-term energy policies — but critics are using the moment to once again take aim at Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ scrapping of winter fuel payments to pensioners not in receipt of benefits or pension credit, underlining the real political danger for Labour over the next few months. 
Going over the top: Labour MP Rachael Maskell went on the Today program this morning to publicly urge her party to reconsider means-testing the allowance, telling the broadcaster the decision will leave pensioners having to decide whether to put their heating on this winter. Plenty of other Labour MPs privately feel uneasy about the cut, which Reeves blamed on the “black hole” she found in the public finances. Miliband’s Tory shadow Claire Coutinho called for an “urgent rethink” too.
MORE DANGER TO COME: The prison population increased by 341 over the last week thanks to the jailing of rioters, new Ministry of Justice figures out this morning revealed. Overall the prison population has increased by almost a thousand in the three weeks since all that disorder kicked off … and after Labour warned the prison system was close to collapse and that thousands of inmates will have to be released early in September.
Across the whole of England and Wales. … There are now just 1,149 spare prison places in ALL jails. Plus, as justice commentator Danny Shaw tweets here, just a couple of hundred of those free beds are in men’s jails. And men do tend to cause more trouble.
Reminder: As per the Times splash this morning, magistrates were being urged to to hold off on jailing some criminals until that early release scheme takes effect on September 10 — which is still more than two weeks away. Any more unexpected disorder or rioting before then could see Britain’s prisons become, literally, full. The MoJ faces a nervy fortnight. 
The MoJ says … “The new government inherited a prisons crisis, and this is yet another sign of the pressures our justice system is facing. The changes coming into force in September will bring it under control.”
Surely too on the nose: In one more example of things in the U.K. not really working … HS2 train carriages will have to be refitted — at a cost of about £200m to the taxpayer — because their doors are too high for ordinary station platforms, the i’s Richard Vaughan reports.
And to make matters worse for the PM: Jeremy Clarkson has barred Starmer from his new pub. Time to reconsider those bank holiday plans.
STARMER’S FRIDAY: The PM made a bit of geopolitical history on a sleepy Friday morning in August — speaking to Chinese premier Xi Jinping for the first time since taking office.
Tale of two readouts: China got its version of the call out first — and Xi, according to Beijing’s embassy, told Starmer he hoped Britain would “view China in an objective and rational manner.”
Translation: Don’t come over all China hawk on us.
A few hours later … And the Downing Street readout of the call landed. According to No. 10, Starmer told Xi he “hoped the leaders would be able to have open, frank and honest discussions to address and understand areas of disagreement when necessary, such as Hong Kong, Russia’s war in Ukraine and human rights.” The Labour government is still planning an audit of Britain’s relationship with China, and a government minister declined to say earlier this month if Britain considers China to be a “threat” or a “challenge” — which is the big debate in U.K. China hawk circles.
KEMI’S HAPPY BANK HOLIDAY: Kemi Badenoch has an early lead with Tory members in the leadership race and would defeat all six candidates in a head-to-head, YouGov polling of the leadership contest suggests. The former education secretary’s lead is fairly clear on 24 percent — with Tom Tugendhat (16) … James Cleverly (14) … Robert Jenrick (12) … Priti Patel (11) … and poor old Mel Stride (2 percent) all lagging behind.
The other camps emphasize … That it’s still early in the race, that the numbers are all close and that Techne U.K.’s polling of members found very different results — with the exception of verdicts on Stride’s campaign which lags the pack according to both pollsters. “I think it’s basically quite close,” one spinner for a Badenoch rival says. But either way, Camp Kemi are delighted with the momentum heading into the September whirlwind of member wooing, MP ballots and of course the conference jamboree at the end of the month.
In Tommy T land: Tugendhat suggested to the Telegraph’s afternoon newsletter that he isn’t completely behind Britain’s net zero by 2050 target. In answer to a reader question about whether he’d keep the target, Tugendhat said “we’ve got to look at everything.” That interview with the Telegraph’s Dominic Penna took place Wednesday, but was released at noon today.
Two days is a long-time in politics: Fast forward to this afternoon and Tugendhat has now said he “is committed to working towards net zero by 2050” but that “the markets must take the lead.” Which sounds to Playbook PM like a slight rowing back on what was already not a particularly clear position.
Up in Scotland: Priti Patel has been in Scotland trying to woo Scottish Tory members fed up with their own leadership contest — which has been making the U.K. contest look like a comradely and polite exchange of ideas. Former Scottish Secretary David Mundell is hosting an event for Patel with members later, and then Patel is off to Norfolk over the weekend as she tries to turn around those polling numbers that her see trailing all the likeliest contenders.
FWIW: Mundell clarified that this shouldn’t be seen as an endorsement of Patel, and that he’s happy to host all candidates who want to visit his sprawling constituency. Playbook PM can heartily recommend a drive around Mundell’s patch.
AND IN THE OTHER LEADERSHIP CONTEST: Scottish Tory challenger Murdo Fraser decided to have his own Kate Forbes moment by confirming to the Daily Record he doesn’t support gay marriage. Some supporters of the other candidates took swipes at him.
THROWBACK FRIDAY: Remember the big election betting scandal everyone was so excited about? The Met have dropped their investigation without bringing any public misconduct charges — though have emphasized that this isn’t an all-clear since the Gambling Commission is still investigating if any criminal offenses were committed. More from POLITICO’s Matt Honeycombe-Foster here.
THAT SCHOLARSHIP HAS SAILED: The U.K. government quietly suspended an international scholarship for Afghan students, news start-up Hyphen’s Mariam Amini reports. The scholarship remained open for other countries. The FCDO declined to comment.
IN NORTHERN IRELAND: Great Britain’s temporary ban on puberty blockers has been extended to cover Northern Ireland by the Stormont executive. More from the BBC here.
FRIDAY TWITTER RAMMY: Editor of the pro-independence National newspaper Laura Webster used social media to rage about a BBC journo calling some of their journalism “propaganda.” Sam Taylor of the pro-union These Islands think tank hit back.
NOT THE BEST LOOK: A United Nations report urged the U.K. government to curb racist hate speech — including from politicians. It named no names but said “hate speech and the dissemination of racist ideas” were prevalent in mainstream media, online and spread via politicians and public figures. It highlighted the recent far right and misinformation-fueled riots in the wake of the Southport attack. The BBC has a writeup.
ALL THE CHICAGO FALLOUT: Our top colleagues over on POLITICO.com have all the coverage readers could ever dream of on the Democratic convention and the U.S. election following the Kamala Harris speech last night. Just scroll and click around on their homepage. 
And breaking in America: U.S. news outlets are reporting that a number of secret service personnel have been put on leave following the assassination attempt on Donald Trump. MSNBC has covered it, among others. 
BAD VIBES IN GEORGIA: Georgia’s ruling party vowed to outlaw virtually all its political opponents if it wins parliamentary elections later this year, POLITICO’s Gabriel Gavin reports. The ban would likely leave Georgia’s already frozen bid to join the EU in tatters, after recent clashes between Tbilisi and Brussels on human rights and the rule of law.
BAD VIBES IN HUNGARY: Balázs Győrffy, a member of the European Parliament from Hungarian leader Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz party, said he would stand down after carrying out booze-fueled “violence” against a woman. Csongor Körömi has that one. 
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LEADING THE NEWS BULLETINS: Channel 5 News (5 p.m.) … BBC News at Six is leading on the tragic boating accident off Palermo … Channel 4 News (7 p.m.) …
News Hour (Sky News, 5 p.m.): U.S. pollster John Zogby …. Age UK Director Caroline Abrahams. 
Drive with Cathy Newman (Times Radio, 5 p.m.): Personal finance guru Martin Lewis … Ex-Obama campaign aide Patrick Frank … Landlord and PM pub banner Jeremy Clarkson.
Tom Swarbrick (LBC until 7 p.m.): Labour peer Prem Sikka … Political commentator Alex Armstrong. 
Any Questions (Radio 4, 8 p.m.): The panel in Hartrigg Oaks care community in York includes Shadow Business Secretary Kevin Hollinrake … Labour MP Barry Gardiner … Lib Dem MP Wendy Chamberlain and National Care Association exec Nadra Ahmed.
TWEETING TOMORROW’S PAPERS TONIGHT: Jack Surfleet. 
REVIEWING THE PAPERS TONIGHT: Sky News (10.30 p.m. and 11.30 p.m.): Political journo Zoë Grünewald … PR consultant Alex Deane … Times Radio (10.30 p.m.) journalist Jo Phillips.
UKRAINE: Saturday marks Ukrainian Independence Day— 33 years since Ukraine achieved independence from the Soviet Union. The U.K. government is encouraging members of the public and businesses to post videos “making noise” for Ukraine to mark the day and the country’s resistance to Russia’s invasion.
BANK HOLIDAY: Readers in England and Wales get to enjoy a long weekend Monday.
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The Camilla Tominey Show (GB News, 9.30 a.m. on Sunday): Conservative MP David Davis … Labour MP Mike Tapp … former Conservative MP Damian Green … former Ukip MEP Patrick O’Flynn … Former senior armed forces officer Simon Mayall.
Theo Usherwood on Times Radio (10 a.m.): Cabinet Office Minister Pat McFadden … Former Chancellor Nadhim Zahawi … Ukrainian rep in the U.K. Eduard Fesco … former ambassador to Iran Richard Dalton … Journalist Rachel Wearmouth … political adviser Patrick Hennessy … Former ambassador to Russia Laurie Bristow … Historian Vernon Bogdanor. 
Carole Walker with Times Radio Drive (Times Radio, 5 p.m. on Sunday): Labour MP Lucy Rigby … Lib Dem MP Lisa Smart … Conservative MP David Simmonds … Tortoise Media Pol Ed Cat Neilan.
NEW GIG: Scottish Labour staffer in Holyrood John Erskine has a new gig as head of MP (and Scottish affairs committee chairmanship hopeful) Gregor Poynton’s constituency office.
WHAT I’VE BEEN READING: Former Tory SpAd Henry Newman’s ever-interesting Whitehall Project Substack raises more questions for Labour today — this time about the promotion of civil servant Louise Tinsley almost immediately after the general election. As Newman writes, the civil servant appears to have worked with Chancellor Rachel Reeves on several occasions in the past.
WHAT MY EARS HAVE BEEN HEARING: Westminster Insider is back with a great episode by Sascha O’Sullivan on the fun and games enveloping the 300-odd new MPs as they get used to Westminster
WRITING MONDAY MORNING PLAYBOOK: Stefan Boscia.
THANKS TO: My editor Matt Honeycombe-Foster, reporter Emilio Casalicchio and the POLITICO production team for making it look nice.
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